For 2010 as a whole, GDP growth is projected to return to positive territory, with an annual rate of 1.2%. Temporary factors, such as the inventory cycle and the effects of stimulus measures, at play at the end of 2009 are set to last in the first quarter. From the second quarter onwards, activity is projected to slow down. Private consumption will suffer from muted increases in purchasing power and the expiry of the car-scrapping premium. In addition, the uncertain demand outlook, the underutilisation of production capacities, the widespread declines in profits and the need for firms to strengthen their balance sheets, do not bode well for corporate investment. With the export market share of France in global trade declining, the growth impetus from exports is expected to remain lacklustre.
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