lundi 24 janvier 2011

Commodities - Lies and Truth - Since 2008 and the peak? Prices went down

Wheat made a high on Feb 27th 2008 at 1450.75 (the peak) Today January 19th at 808.50 down by 44%
Corn made a high on June 26th 2008 at 891 (the peak) Today January 19th at 667 down by 25%
It is possible to go on and on since the peak of 2008, prices are down by an average of 32%, have prices gone down?
Conclusion:
2008 peak, the DJ UBS Commodity index reaches 238 on July the 2nd 2008 and peaks again on January the 18th 2011 at 162.77, down by 31%. Such a reduction on food prices are possible, thanks to free markets, on a longer term the numbers have shown an average annualized return of a little bit over 5% (DJ UBS Commodity as well DJ UBS Agriculture sub index) with no doubt an active participation over the last ten years of the so called "speculators", the above numbers showing retail prices for the end consumers sadly don't benefit from the reduction of prices on international markets, thanks to oligopoles, lack of competition and regulations....
Now you may ask what will happened to prices regulated or not when some major players will suspend their exports due to extreme climate events, political turmoils (these days, cocoa Ivory Coast), armed conflicts or else?
If "speculators" aren't responsible for prices level and very modest returns, what about volatility, are they responsible for and are free markets their tool to do so? Looking at Ivory Coast and cocoa, what would be your first conclusion, surely it is difficult to think "speculators" have played a role in advising any of the parties at the conflict? Have free markets played a role in the dispute? So, if cocoa prices were regulated what will happen if really Ivory Coast suspends its exports? Is cocoa price to go up in several areas in the world? Of course yes, no? If it can't be on a free market with some transparency, will we see the birth of a black market to keep exchanging cocoa at record high prices with no mechanism at all?
I'm afraid the answer is yes, il has always been the case thoughout man kind history. Free markets have succeeded at many things, bring into light our worse bias, allowed to learn in a timely manner of our excesses and offered the authorities to intervene effectively should the situation to require it what they can't do on black markets.

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